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Why standard MMM breaks in small Caribbean markets.
Bayesian priors, regional seasonality, and the tourism-arrivals correction that keeps MMM honest in markets under half a million people.
Standard MMM assumes enough signal density that noise averages out. In smaller Caribbean markets, it doesn’t. This piece walks through the adjustments we use — Bayesian priors, holiday structure, and tourism-arrivals as a structural covariate.
Full methodology is shared under NDA with engagement clients.